SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 8 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Greece | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | -41 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 78.8%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 7.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.41%) and 1-0 (10.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.7%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lithuania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lithuania | Draw | Gibraltar |
78.8% ( -0.01) | 14.08% ( 0.06) | 7.12% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 43.47% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.82% ( -0.58) | 38.17% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.55% ( -0.62) | 60.45% ( 0.61) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.22% ( -0.13) | 7.78% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.35% ( -0.34) | 27.65% ( 0.33) |
| Gibraltar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.14% ( -0.56) | 52.85% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.44% ( -0.37) | 86.56% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lithuania | Draw | Gibraltar |
| 2-0 @ 13.4% ( 0.19) 3-0 @ 11.41% ( 0.09)1-0 @ 10.5% ( 0.22)2-1 @ 8.55% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.07)5-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.06)6-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.05)6-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.23% Total : 78.79% | 1-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.55% Total : 14.08% | 0-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.36% Total : 7.12% |
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