This is a tough fixture to call - even before factoring in the significant unknown of Everton's potentially missing players - considering the hosts' inability to claim three points and the Toffees' lacklustre form on the road. We are backing the two to cancel each other out and produce a score draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 42.95%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
