SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 59.78%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 18.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.96%) and 0-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.07%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-0 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Arsenal |
18.79% ( 0.27) | 21.42% ( 0.21) | 59.78% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 54.82% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.41% ( -0.52) | 42.59% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35% ( -0.52) | 65% ( 0.52) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.64% ( -0.02) | 36.36% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.85% ( -0.01) | 73.15% ( 0.01) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.14% ( -0.31) | 13.86% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.75% ( -0.62) | 41.25% ( 0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Arsenal |
| 1-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 2.58% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0)Other @ 2.6% Total : 18.79% | 1-1 @ 10.07% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 5.04% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.42% | 0-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 9.96% ( -0)0-2 @ 9.84% ( 0)1-3 @ 6.56% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 6.48% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 3.32% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 3.24% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 3.2% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 1.28% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.04% Total : 59.78% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
