SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.96%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for Manchester United had a probability of 13.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.73%), while for a Manchester United win it was 1-2 (3.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Manchester United |
71.96% ( -3.56) | 14.91% ( 1.51) | 13.12% ( 2.06) |
| Both teams to score 66.53% ( 0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 77.92% ( -2.27) | 22.08% ( 2.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 59% ( -3.19) | 41% ( 3.19) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.52% ( -1.02) | 5.47% ( 1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.62% ( -3.06) | 21.38% ( 3.06) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.38% ( 1.01) | 29.62% ( -1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.34% ( 1.22) | 65.65% ( -1.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Manchester United |
| 2-1 @ 8.33% ( 0.51) 3-1 @ 8.06% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.24)3-0 @ 6.63% ( -0.22)4-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.45)3-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 4.81% ( -0.51)1-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.47)4-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.17)5-1 @ 3.4% ( -0.52)5-0 @ 2.8% ( -0.52)5-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.25)6-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.39)4-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.03)6-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.37)6-2 @ 1% ( -0.2)Other @ 4.55% Total : 71.96% | 1-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.71) 2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.44)3-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.26)Other @ 0.51% Total : 14.91% | 1-2 @ 3.49% ( 0.52) 2-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.23)0-1 @ 1.97% ( 0.36)1-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.25)Other @ 2.99% Total : 13.12% |
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