SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 69.19%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 13.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.5%) and 1-3 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 2-1 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Manchester City |
13.59% ( -0.46) | 17.22% ( 0.09) | 69.19% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 57.84% ( -1.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.07% ( -1.59) | 32.93% ( 1.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.36% ( -1.85) | 54.64% ( 1.85) |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.29% ( -1.69) | 36.71% ( 1.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.5% ( -1.73) | 73.5% ( 1.73) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.39% ( -0.33) | 8.61% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.28% ( -0.81) | 29.72% ( 0.81) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.05% Total : 13.59% | 1-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 3.16% ( 0.26)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.22% Total : 17.22% | 1-2 @ 9.52% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 9.5% ( 0.5)1-3 @ 7.79% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 7.77% ( 0.3)0-1 @ 7.75% ( 0.52)1-4 @ 4.77% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 4.76% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.21)2-4 @ 2.39% ( -0.17)1-5 @ 2.34% ( -0.09)0-5 @ 2.34% ( 0.02)2-5 @ 1.17% ( -0.1)1-6 @ 0.96% ( -0.05)0-6 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.27% Total : 69.19% |
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