Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 34.8%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 34.14% and a draw had a probability of 31.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.85%) and 1-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (13.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.

Result
Belenenses	Draw	Moreirense
34.14%	31.06%	34.8%

Both teams to score 39.43%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

31.73%

68.27%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

13.89%

86.11%

Belenenses Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.56%

37.43%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.78%

74.22%

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.03%

36.97%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.24%

73.75%

Score Analysis

Belenenses 34.13%

Moreirense 34.8%

Draw 31.05%

Belenenses	Draw	Moreirense
1-0 @ 13.59% 2-0 @ 6.68% 2-1 @ 6.65% 3-0 @ 2.19% 3-1 @ 2.18% 3-2 @ 1.08% Other @ 1.76% Total : 34.13%	0-0 @ 13.83% 1-1 @ 13.53% 2-2 @ 3.31% Other @ 0.38% Total : 31.05%	0-1 @ 13.77% 0-2 @ 6.85% 1-2 @ 6.73% 0-3 @ 2.27% 1-3 @ 2.23% 2-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.84% Total : 34.8%