Arouca have turned a corner in recent weeks and will be backing themselves against an out-of-sorts Casa Pia side. While we expect the hosts to put up a fight, we predict that the Arouquenses will pick up all three points at the Estadio Pina Manique.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
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