SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 50.91%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 25.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.99%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
50.91% ( -0.1) | 23.28% ( 0.04) | 25.81% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 58.23% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.38% ( -0.12) | 42.62% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.97% ( -0.12) | 65.03% ( 0.12) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.16% ( -0.08) | 16.84% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.17% ( -0.15) | 46.83% ( 0.15) |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.02% ( -0.01) | 29.98% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.91% ( -0.01) | 66.09% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.01% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.73% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.76% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.2% Total : 50.91% | 1-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.28% | 1-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.12% Total : 25.81% |
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