Arouca have put together a fine run of form in recent weeks, claiming two wins and two draws in their most recent four outings. The Arouquenses take on an out-of-sorts Maritimo side and we predict that they will steal a slender victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 35.3%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 34.86% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.16%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (12.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
-0.95) 
1.05) 
