Given that Maritimo are fighting for their lives at the bottom end of the table, we expect the hosts to pick up a precious point against off-form Vitoria de Guimaraes, whose winless run looks set to continue.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
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