With nine games to go before the end of the 2022-23 Primeira Liga campaign, Pacos de Ferreira have little time to salvage their season. While Vitoria de Guimaraes have run out of steam in recent weeks, they have been solid on home turf, where they have won three of their last four matches. With that said, we anticipate a close contest at the Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques, with the hosts claiming a slender victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 51.92%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 21.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.53%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (8.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
0.1) 
-0.15) 
