Although Casa Pia's form has tailed off considerably in the second half of the season, they are very rarely on the receiving end of any heavy defeats, with their last three defeats being by one-goal margins.
As such, we expect Porto to emerge as narrow winners, just about managing to keep themselves in contention for the Primeira Liga title.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 79.97%. A draw had a probability of 13.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 6.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.44%) and 1-0 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.32%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (2.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Porto in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Porto.
-0.33) 
0.19) 
