Vitoria de Guimaraes have put together a fine run of form in recent weeks and will fancy their chances against a Chaves side whose form on the road is currently nothing to write home about. While we expect the visitors to put up a fight, we are backing Pacheco's men to come away with all three points, albeit by the odd goal.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 27.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
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