SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 51.8%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 24.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Orenburg |
51.8% ( 0.01) | 23.82% ( 0) | 24.38% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 54.93% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.69% ( -0) | 46.3% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.4% ( -0) | 68.59% ( 0.01) |
| Akhmat Grozny Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.12% ( 0.01) | 17.87% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.35% ( 0.01) | 48.65% |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.89% ( -0.01) | 33.11% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.29% ( -0.01) | 69.71% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Orenburg |
| 1-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.77% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.57% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.04% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.4% 4-0 @ 2.17% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.32% Other @ 3.57% Total : 51.8% | 1-1 @ 11.26% 0-0 @ 5.92% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.36% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.82% | 0-1 @ 6.54% 1-2 @ 6.23% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.62% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.29% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.33% ( -0)Other @ 2.4% Total : 24.38% |
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