SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 45.07%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orenburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
45.07% ( -0.83) | 24.09% ( 0.23) | 30.83% ( 0.61) |
| Both teams to score 59.24% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57% ( -0.74) | 42.99% ( 0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.6% ( -0.74) | 65.39% ( 0.74) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.73% ( -0.64) | 19.26% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49% ( -1.07) | 50.99% ( 1.07) |
| FC Krasnodar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.37% ( 0.02) | 26.63% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.14% ( 0.03) | 61.86% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
| 2-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.22% Total : 45.07% | 1-1 @ 11.17% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 6.09% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.09% | 1-2 @ 7.4% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 6.79% ( 0.22)0-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.15% Total : 30.83% |
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