Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 40.26%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.