Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 55.71%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 22.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 1-2 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lokomotiv Moscow in this match.
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