SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 70.68%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Arbroath had a probability of 12.06%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ayr United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 1-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.08%), while for an Arbroath win it was 1-2 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ayr United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ayr United | Draw | Arbroath |
70.68% ( -0.15) | 17.26% ( 0.03) | 12.06% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 52.7% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.83% ( 0.16) | 37.17% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.63% ( 0.17) | 59.37% ( -0.17) |
| Ayr United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.64% ( 0.01) | 9.36% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.46% ( 0.02) | 31.53% ( -0.02) |
| Arbroath Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.14% ( 0.29) | 41.85% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.69% ( 0.25) | 78.3% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ayr United | Draw | Arbroath |
| 2-0 @ 10.99% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 9.28% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 8.68% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 7.56% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 2.12% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.31% Total : 70.68% | 1-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 17.26% | 1-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 3.41% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.41% Total : 12.06% |
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