Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Zaragoza win with a probability of 42.94%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 27.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Zaragoza win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.87%) and 2-1 (7.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.22%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
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