As Serie B-bound Sampdoria concede goals at a rate of more than two per game when on the road, even Milan's tired and demoralised front line can score in Saturday's late kickoff. It may be attritional at times, but the hosts will be spurred on by knowing even a fifth-placed finish could secure their Champions League return if Juventus are ultimately docked nine points as expected.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 77.75%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 7.05%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.61%) and 3-0 (11.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (3%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
0.16) 
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