As Empoli are enjoying their best form of the season, they should expect to overcome a fragile Cagliari side that cannot buy a win on the road. The Sardinians have scored only eight Serie A goals away from home this season, while their hosts are now full of confidence in the final third.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 36.76%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 35.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.98%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Empoli win was 1-0 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Cagliari in this match.
0.19) 
-0.25) 
