Having begun to settle into Serie A life with a decent string of results, Lecce step up in class this week and may be picked off by Jose Mourinho's canny Roma side. The hosts are faced with an intense fixture list, but can still call on game-changers from the bench if this contest stays tight towards its conclusion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 64.72%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 13.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.1%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
0.22) 
-0.11) 
