Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 34.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.
