Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 47.49%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 27.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Ternana win was 0-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sampdoria would win this match.
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