Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 44.21%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
0) 
-0.02) 
