Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 61.59%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 18.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 3-1 (7.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.54%), while for a Lugano win it was 1-2 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Basel in this match.

Result
Basel	Draw	Lugano
61.59% ( -2.69)	19.48% ( 1.06)	18.94% ( 1.63)

Both teams to score 62.18% (

-0.72)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.89% (

-2.34)

33.12% (

2.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.14% (

-2.74)

54.86% (

2.75)

Basel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.57% (

-1.31)

10.43% (

1.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.98% (

-3.04)

34.02% (

3.05)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.42% (

0.21)

30.58% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.19% (

0.25)

66.81% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Basel 61.59%

Lugano 18.94%

Draw 19.48%

Basel	Draw	Lugano
2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 7.27% ( -0.3) 1-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.49) 3-0 @ 6.14% ( -0.29) 3-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.15) 4-1 @ 4.11% ( -0.42) 4-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.38) 4-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.23) 5-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.31) 5-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.27) 5-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.18) 4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.35% Total : 61.59%	1-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.62) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.38) 3-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.32% Total : 19.48%	1-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.4) 0-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.47) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.29) 1-3 @ 2% ( 0.17) Other @ 3.6% Total : 18.94%