Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Young Boys win with a probability of 56.65%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 21.8% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Young Boys win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.49%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (5.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
