While Estrela Amadora have put together a fine run of form in recent weeks, they are certainly in for a tough 90 minutes against a Benfica side who are currently firing on all cylinders. Given the gulf in class and quality between the two sides, we are backing As Aguias to come away with all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 81.95%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 5.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (12.83%) and 0-1 (11.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.96%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (2.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
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