Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 35.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Moreirense	Draw	Arouca
35.39% ( 0.86)	26.79% ( 0.11)	37.81% ( -0.97)

Both teams to score 51.53% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.43% (

-0.34)

53.57% (

0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.92% (

-0.29)

75.07% (

0.29)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.07% (

0.37)

28.93% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.19% (

0.46)

64.81% (

-0.46)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.51% (

-0.7)

27.48% (

0.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.01% (

-0.92)

62.98% (

0.92)

Score Analysis

Moreirense 35.39%

Arouca 37.8%

Draw 26.79%

Moreirense	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 9.86% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 3.27% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.6% Total : 35.39%	1-1 @ 12.73% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.79%	0-1 @ 10.26% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 8.23% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.03% Total : 37.8%