Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.06) 
