Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
-2.01) 
0.51) 
