Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
1.09) 
-0.3) 
