Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 77.62%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Mortagua had a probability of 7.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.91%) and 1-0 (10.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.92%), while for a Mortagua win it was 0-1 (2.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
-0.26) 
0.14) 
