Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vilaverdense win with a probability of 46.17%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vilaverdense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 0-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vilaverdense would win this match.
-0.04) 
0.08) 
