Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 43.56%. A win for Vilaverdense had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.73%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Vilaverdense win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belenenses would win this match.
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