Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 40.88%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.