SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.01%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.75%) and 1-2 (8.71%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Penarol |
27.55% ( 1.06) | 27.44% ( 1.02) | 45.01% ( -2.08) |
| Both teams to score 46.78% ( -2.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.73% ( -3.09) | 58.27% ( 3.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.1% ( -2.49) | 78.9% ( 2.49) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.05% ( -0.81) | 36.94% ( 0.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.27% ( -0.81) | 73.73% ( 0.81) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.19% ( -2.38) | 25.8% ( 2.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.24% ( -3.33) | 60.76% ( 3.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 9.49% ( 0.88) 2-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.34)3-1 @ 2.13% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.79% Total : 27.55% | 1-1 @ 12.85% ( 0.35) 0-0 @ 9.53% ( 1.07)2-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.28)Other @ 0.71% Total : 27.43% | 0-1 @ 12.91% ( 0.63) 0-2 @ 8.75% ( -0.17)1-2 @ 8.71% ( -0.36)0-3 @ 3.95% ( -0.36)1-3 @ 3.93% ( -0.46)2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.28)0-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.23)1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.26)Other @ 2.13% Total : 45.01% |
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