Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millonarios win with a probability of 46.26%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 26.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millonarios win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.94%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (9.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Millonarios would win this match.
-0.08) 
0.01) 
