SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 62.02%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 14.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.11%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.68%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Fenix |
62.02% ( -0.39) | 23.18% ( 0.22) | 14.8% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 41.59% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.92% ( -0.51) | 56.08% ( 0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.84% ( -0.42) | 77.15% ( 0.42) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.27% ( -0.33) | 17.73% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.6% ( -0.56) | 48.4% ( 0.56) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.55% ( -0.07) | 49.45% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.73% ( -0.05) | 84.27% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Fenix |
| 1-0 @ 15.16% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 13.11% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 7.57% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 5.33% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.13% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.02% Total : 62.01% | 1-1 @ 10.68% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.77% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.48% Total : 23.18% | 0-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.69% Total : 14.8% |
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