Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 48.56%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 28.37% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.
