Fresh off a dramatic game-winning drive in the fourth quarter last Thursday, the Los Angeles Rams head to Lambeau Field for Monday Night Football to face the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay ended a two-game losing streak last Sunday with a 28-19 victory over the Chicago Bears, while the reigning Super Bowl champs edged the Las Vegas Raiders 17-16.
Match preview
A balanced offensive attack and a monstrous fourth quarter a week ago enabled the Packers to move within two games of a wildcard spot in the NFC.
They allowed over 400 yards to the opposition for a fourth consecutive game but were able to run for 175 yards and throw for 182, averaging 5.7 yards per play versus the Bears.
Defensively, this group have played aggressively throughout the year, posting a pressure rating of 30.2%, blitzing 40.3% of the time, which has produced 24 sacks, but none in their previous encounter.
Facing the best rushing attack in the NFL, Matt LaFleur's team failed to step up as Bears QB Justin Fields averaged 11.8 yards per carry versus the Cheeseheads, while Green Bay allowed a total of 155 yards on the ground.
So far, in 2022, Green Bay have conceded an average of 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs, while their risky strategy of heavy blitzing has often come back to bite them, allowing a 93.2 rating to wide receivers this year.
The Packers have outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter in three of its previous four encounters, including a big final 15 minutes in the Windy City when they put up 18 points and did not allow one.
First impressions last, as they say, and Rams QB Baker Mayfield made quite the debut for his new team on Thursday Night Football, one that we will not soon forget.
It was not just his dramatic drive that gave his team the victory which impressed, but his poise when under pressure was extraordinary as he went 10/12 on his throws against the blitz for a 128.5 rating.
Those are some stunning numbers for a pivot who had less than 48 hours to learn a new offence, but Sean McVay's offensive line still struggled with pass protection, allowing four sacks to the Raiders and six quarterback hits on Mayfield.
All season long, their running game has been non-existent, ranked 30th in the NFL, but they have been especially good at stopping opposing ground games, allowing a 3.9-yard average to running backs in 2022, and holding the NFL's leading rusher Josh Jacobs to a 3.7-yard average in their last encounter.
A week ago their secondary by committee was probably as good as we have seen all year, intercepting Derek Carr twice and holding the Raiders QB to a low rating of 36.9, with the Packers defence having collected at least one pick in three consecutive games.
LA have won just one road game this season and are winless against NFC North teams away from home since Boxing Day a year ago.
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Team News
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a pick in three of his last four games, and he connected with Christian Watson for another touchdown against the Bears, as the 23-year-old has at least one TD grab in four consecutive contests.
AJ Dillon averaged 5.2 yards on the ground last week for the Packers, and Allen Lazard made five catches for 67 yards.
Keisean Nixon and Jaire Alexander each had interceptions in their previous encounter, as the former cornerback at Louisville, along with De'Vondre Campbell, each had six tackles in that game, while Aaron Jones has averaged 5.2 yards per carry this season.
Darnell Savage could be fully recovered from his sore foot, Elgton Jenkins might have to sit this one out because of a sprained knee, Rudy Ford practised all week, having previously suffered a wrist injury, while David Bakhtiari is unlikely to see the field due to an issue with his knee and abdomen.
While Mayfield got most of the attention for the Rams last Thursday for good reason, it was Van Jefferson who caught the winning score, his second in three games, Cam Akers had a TD run but only averaged 3.5 yards on the ground, Tutu Atwell made five catches, while their leading receiver was Ben Skowronek, who had seven grabs for 89 yards.
Troy Hill and Bobby Wagner each made seven tackles to lead the way for LA, while Taylor Rapp and Ernest Jones both had an interception.
John Wolford remains a doubt with a neck strain, Robert Rochell has a sore wrist, Aaron Donald and Marquise Copeland previously sustained ankle sprains and Brian Allen could be sidelined because of a knee injury.
Head To Head
The Packers have not lost at Lambeau against the Rams since 2006 as Randall Cobb had a TD catch in Wisconsin last November, while Rasul Douglas had a pick-six helping Green Bay win 36-28, giving them a 48-47-2 edge in the all-time series.
It was a pair of fourth-quarter field goals from Greg Zuerlein which gave LA their previous victory against Green Bay in 2018 (29-27).
In 2021, these teams met in the NFC Divisional Round, with Mason Crosby booting a pair of field goals in that encounter while Lazard and Davante Adams each caught a touchdown pass from Rodgers, who himself ran for a score as the Packers won 32-18 and advanced to the NFC Championship game.
We say: Green Bay Packers 22-18 Los Angeles Rams
It was difficult not to be captivated by what Mayfield achieved last week, but we do not foresee a repeat performance from him this weekend.
To be successful at Lambeau in those frigid conditions, you need to run the ball efficiently, and the Rams have not shown an ability to do that all year, so look for the ground game to tip the scales in Green Bay's favour.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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