Following back-to-back defeats on their recent two-game road trip, the Indianapolis Colts return to Lucas Oil Stadium to battle the upstart Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.
Indy are officially eliminated from postseason contention, having dropped four consecutive contests, while a two-game winning streak has LA back above the playoff line in the AFC with a record of 8-6.
Match preview
In what can only be described as a nightmare before Christmas, Jeff Saturday saw his Colts self-implode in the second half of their tilt versus the Minnesota Vikings, squandering a 33-point half time advantage, losing 39-36 in overtime, the biggest collapse in NFL history.
They have started many of their recent outings well but cannot seem to maintain that consistency as a game wears on, scoring six points or fewer in three of their previous five second half encounters.
While three of their previous four defeats were by a single score, the Colts have looked extremely fragile this month, conceding 93 points in just two games, and they can win no more than seven contests by the end of the campaign, which would be the fewest for this franchise since 2019-20.
Across the board, this group have been poor defensively since Saturday took over, conceding over 100 yards rushing in three of his five games in charge and also allowing over 1,000 total yards in their last three games (1,134), including 426 to Kirk Cousins and the Vikings last Saturday.
Offensively, they have been influential in the running game, with over 100 yards on the ground in four of their last five outings.
However, they have only thrown for more than 200 yards once in their previous four games, and that was primarily in the latter stages versus the Dallas Cowboys, with that game well out of reach.
The Colts have dropped three in a row at Lucas Oil Stadium, their longest losing streak at home since 2017 when they were beaten on four successive occasions before defeating the Houston Texans in their final meeting of that season.
After a difficult month of November, the Chargers are back in position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
Heading into this month, it looked as though Brandon Staley's crew were fading, as they came into December having won just one of their last three games.
Defensively, the Chargers have stepped up their game of late, conceding fewer than 20 points in back-to-back contests, holding the third-best passing attack in the NFL (the Miami Dolphins) to 127 yards through the air two weeks ago.
They continue to struggle against the run, allowing a league-high average of 5.5 yards per carry to running backs during the 2022 campaign.
When they struggle along the line of scrimmage, their secondary has usually been able to bail them out, allowing an impressive 90.6 rating to quarterbacks and wide receivers this season and a low completion percentage of 62.1.
Through the air, they have averaged 274.2 yards per game, second only to the Kansas City Chiefs as the Chargers possess an array of talented and dependable receivers with at least eight different players having caught at least one pass for them in their last three games.
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Team News
Following their defeat last Saturday, Colts quarterback Matt Ryan now holds two dubious distinctions that no one wants to have.
His Atlanta Falcons blew a 28-3 lead to the New England Patriots, losing Super Bowl LI 34-28 in overtime, the biggest come-from-behind triumph in the history of the championship game.
He was on the wrong side of history again a week ago, as his offensive unit only managed three points in the second half versus Minnesota.
Michael Pittman led them in receiving last week with 10 catches for 60 yards, Zack Moss picked up 81 yards rushing on 24 carries, Deon Jackson had their only touchdown grab, Julian Blackmon had a pick-six, while JoJo Domann returned a blocked punt 24 yards for a score versus the Vikes.
Chase McLaughlin is 7/7 on field goal attempts over his last two games, connecting on all five of his kicks last weekend, Dayo Odeyingbo collected a pair of sacks against the Purple and Gold, while Grover Stewart, Yannick Ngakoue, Ifeadi Odenigbo, DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye each had one.
Jonathan Taylor is not expected to return this year due to a high ankle sprain, Brandon Facyson could play despite an illness, while Kenny Moore and Kylen Granson also have ankle injuries.
It was not his best performance of the campaign as Chargers QB Justin Herbert tossed two interceptions last week versus the Tennessee Titans.
Luckily for him though, he had a solid supporting cast who came to play as Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley each ran for a score, while Cameron Dicker kicked a 43-yard field goal with four seconds remaining, helping LA to a 17-14 triumph.
Keenan Allen was their leading receiver for a second successive week with eight grabs for 86 yards as he has a total of 20 in his last two games, Mike Williams had four catches for 67 yards and Nasir Adderley picked up their only interception on Ryan Tannehill.
Joe Gaziano, Chris Rumph, Kyle Van Noy and Drue Tranquill each had a sack last week, with the Indiana-born linebacker leading LA with seven tackles.
Jamaree Salyer is expected to play despite a sore knee, and we should see Trey Pipkins as well, even though he is dealing with the same problem, Kemon Hall has a hamstring strain and Bryce Callahan could be a question mark because of a groin injury.
Head To Head
The Chargers have won four of their last five encounters versus Indy, including an OT thriller in 2019 the last time out.
On that occasion, Phillip Rivers threw for three touchdowns, two to Ekeler and one to Allen, with Ekeler also running in the winning score in overtime as LA won 30-24, improving their overall record against the Colts to 19-11.
In the previous meeting between these clubs, it was the Colts who came out on top 26-22 back in 2016 when Andrew Luck hit TY Hilton for the game-winning score, while Robert Turbin and Frank Gore each had a rushing TD.
These teams met in the 2009 postseason when the Chargers were still in San Diego as LaDainian Tomlinson ran for a second-quarter touchdown on that day, while Darren Sproles had two TDs on the ground, including the winner in overtime as they defeated Indianapolis 23-17 to advance to the AFC Divisional Round.
We say: Indianapolis Colts 13-26 Los Angeles Chargers
The loss of Taylor is a massive relief for the Chargers' dismal rush defence, who should be able to put their focus on pass coverage which they have excelled at all year.
Indy are reeling after being burned through the air in the previous two games, and we expect they will have their hands full against perhaps the deepest receiving corps in the NFL.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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