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Premier League | Gameweek 36
May 8, 2022 at 2pm UK
Emirates Stadium
LL

Arsenal
2 - 1
Leeds

Nketiah (5', 10')
Magalhaes (16'), Tomiyasu (64')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Llorente (66')
Raphinha (27'), Klich (34')
Ayling (27')

Preview: Arsenal vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

:Headline: Preview: Arsenal vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups:
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Arsenal and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Sports Mole

Two sides scrapping for points at opposite ends of the Premier League table lock horns at the Emirates on Sunday afternoon as Arsenal play host to Leeds United.

The Gunners got the better of West Ham United 2-1 in their most recent battle, whereas Jesse Marsch's men were thumped 4-0 by Manchester City at Elland Road.


Match preview

Six years and a new hairline - the formula for Rob Holding's first Premier League goal according to Aaron Ramsdale - as Arsenal's centre-backs stepped up to steer their side to a third consecutive Premier League victory at the London Stadium over West Ham.

Drafted into the side to cover for the injured Ben White, Holding headed home his maiden Premier League goal before Jarrod Bowen restored parity not long after, but the Gabriel Martinelli-Gabriel Magalhaes combination allowed the latter to fire his own header past Lukasz Fabianski in the second period.

As Mikel Arteta - who has just signed a new deal with the club until 2025 - honestly admitted, the manner of Arsenal's victory was certainly "ugly", but consecutive wins over West Ham, Chelsea and Manchester United means that fourth spot is still in Arsenal's hands as they sit two points clear of Tottenham Hotspur, who could temporarily rise into the Champions League places with a shock win at Liverpool.

Furthermore, Chelsea's own struggles has seen Arsenal cut the gap to their third-placed adversaries to just three points, but while they have averaged three goals per game in their recent hot streak, it is now six Premier League fixtures without a clean sheet for the formerly steadfast Gunners defence.

Takehiro Tomiyasu, Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey's absences have of course had a large part to play in that, but Arsenal have only accumulated fewer points than Liverpool and Manchester City on home soil and cannot afford a hit to the confidence before the impending North London derby.

While the charismatic Jesse Marsch has Leeds in with a fighting chance of retaining their Premier League status for a third straight season, trying to outwit Pep Guardiola was a step too far for the American, as Man City ran riot at Elland Road.

Gabriel Jesus, Rodri, Fernandinho and Nathan Ake all helped themselves to goals as Leeds' five-game unbeaten run in the Premier League game to an abrupt end, and their Premier League destiny is once again out of their own hands amid Everton's revival.

As things stand, the Whites are clinging onto the safety of 17th spot but are only two points clear of the Toffees having played a game more - with Frank Lampard's men taking on Leicester City at the same time as their meeting with Arsenal - and a daunting midweek clash with Chelsea also awaits Marsch's side.

Shipping four to Man City sees Leeds enter their 35th game of the season having already conceded 72 league goals - the worst record in the division - but they will at least bring a three-game unbeaten run to the Emirates, keeping back-to-back clean sheets on capital territory against Watford and Crystal Palace in that time.

Marcelo Bielsa oversaw a 4-1 loss at the hands of Arsenal just before Christmas - the Gunners' ninth victory from their last 11 clashes with Sunday's visitors - and it has been 29 years since Leeds last kept a clean sheet on Arsenal's turf in the league, and their defensive record certainly does not hint at the end of such a streak here.

Arsenal Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Leeds United Premier League form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L


Team News

A tight hamstring was given as the reason for Ben White's absence in the win over West Ham, and his place in the squad this weekend is still in slight doubt despite his return to training, so Holding can feel confident about his chances of another start after a man-of-the-match showing at the London Stadium.

Takehiro Tomiyasu was taken off with cramp in his first Premier League start for four months but should be fine to go again here, while Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey remain out for the long term.

Despite failing to find the back of the net, Eddie Nketiah put in another impressive showing last time out and should hold his place over Alexandre Lacazette, while Martinelli could once again be given the nod over Emile Smith Rowe.

As for Leeds, Marsch has been rocked by the news that Stuart Dallas is facing a lengthy period on the sidelines due to the femoral fracture which he sustained at the end of the first half against Man City.

Dallas is being kept company in the treatment room by Adam Forshaw, Crysencio Summerville and Tyler Roberts, and Marsch is not expected to take a risk on Patrick Bamford just yet either. However, Liam Cooper is expected to be available for the Whites after shaking off a knee knock.

Luke Ayling should shift across to right-back with Dallas now sidelined, which could see Diego Llorente drafted into a defensive-heavy setup or Daniel James recalled to the attack for the visitors.

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Tomiyasu, Holding, Gabriel, Tavares; Xhaka, Elneny; Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli; Nketiah

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Koch, Cooper, Firpo; Klich, Phillips; Raphinha, Rodrigo, Harrison; James


We say: Arsenal 2-0 Leeds United

Arsenal were far from their best at the London Stadium and have fared worse against bottom-half sides than their top-half rivals in recent weeks, but facing the Premier League's worst defensive side rocked by an injury to one of their stalwarts spells success for the Gunners.

Marsch's side may fancy their chances against an Arsenal backline that is not watertight anymore, but the chance to potentially move five points clear of Spurs - unless something dramatic happens at Anfield - is one that the Gunners should not pass up.




Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arsenal win with a probability of 64.05%. A draw has a probability of 19.4% and a win for Leeds United has a probability of 16.59%.

The most likely scoreline is Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United with a probability of 9.84% and the second most likely scoreline is Arsenal 2-0 Leeds United with a probability of 9.47%.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Premier League Table
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool16123137162139
2Chelsea17105237191835
3Arsenal1796234161833
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest179442319431
5Bournemouth178452721628
6Aston Villa178452626028
7Manchester CityMan City178362925427
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle177552721626
9Fulham176742422225
10Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton176742726125
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1772839251423
12Brentford177283232023
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd176472122-122
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham175572230-820
15Everton163761421-716
16Crystal Palace173771826-816
17Leicester CityLeicester173592137-1614
18Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1733112740-1312
19Ipswich TownIpswich172691632-1612
20Southampton1713131136-256
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