Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Torpedo-BelAZ had a probability of 31.06% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Torpedo-BelAZ win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.