Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 43.7%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 28.91% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Ceara win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.