Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 8, 2023 at 10pm UK
FT(HT: 1-0)
Caceres (47')
Tomas Ortellado (65'), Cabrera (76'), Anibal (90+3')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Guarani and Sportivo Ameliano.
Form, Standings, Stats
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guarani win with a probability of 47.74%. A win for Sportivo Ameliano had a probability of 26.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guarani win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Sportivo Ameliano win was 0-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guarani would win this match.
| Result |
| Guarani | Draw | Sportivo Ameliano |
47.74% ( -0.34) | 25.27% ( -0.09) | 26.99% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 52.77% ( 0.65) |
| 49.67% ( 0.68) | 50.32% ( -0.68) |
| 27.73% ( 0.6) | 72.27% ( -0.61) |
| 78.9% ( 0.13) | 21.1% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.07% ( 0.2) | 53.92% ( -0.21) |
| 66.87% ( 0.71) | 33.12% ( -0.71) |
