Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 70.46%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Southampton Under-21s had a probability of 11.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.67%), while for a Southampton Under-21s win it was 0-1 (3.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.