Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Downham Town win with a probability of 54.41%. A win for Long Melford had a probability of 24.32% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Downham Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.24%) and 0-1 (7.06%). The likeliest Long Melford win was 2-1 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Downham Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Long Melford | Draw | Downham Town |
24.32% ( -0.16) | 21.27% ( -0.01) | 54.41% ( 0.18) |
Both teams to score 63.82% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.44% ( -0.1) | 34.55% ( 0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.51% ( -0.11) | 56.49% ( 0.11) |
Long Melford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.22% ( -0.17) | 26.78% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.93% ( -0.23) | 62.06% ( 0.23) |
Downham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.16% ( 0.02) | 12.84% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.8% ( 0.04) | 39.2% ( -0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Long Melford | Draw | Downham Town |
2-1 @ 6.13% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 4.53% 2-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.01% Total : 24.32% | 1-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.36% Total : 21.27% | 1-2 @ 9.54% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.24% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 6.53% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 4.96% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 4.3% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 3.35% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.54% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 2.21% ( -0) 1-5 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) 3-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) 2-5 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.38% Total : 54.41% |
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