Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 53.12%. A win for Duisburg had a probability of 24.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.09%) and 0-2 (8.36%). The likeliest Duisburg win was 2-1 (6.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
