Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 68.17%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Triestina Calcio had a probability of 12.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.26%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%), while for a Triestina Calcio win it was 0-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
-0.08) 
0.04) 
